Super Tuesday exit polls revealed significant challenges for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump as they continued on their path towards nomination. These polls highlighted substantial differences between Trump and Nikki Haley voters, which raises concerns about how Trump will be able to bridge these gaps if he becomes the nominee in November.
According to recent polls, a significant percentage of Haley voters in Virginia and North Carolina, 51% and 50% respectively, expressed their approval of President Biden’s performance. Similarly, 30% of Haley voters in California also shared this sentiment. Additionally, a majority of Haley supporters in North Carolina (80%), California (69%), and Virginia (69%) stated that they were undecided about supporting the party’s nominee, reflecting Haley’s own ambivalence on the matter.
In addition, when looking at the data from all states and considering exit or entrance polls from this year, it is clear that Haley voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump would be unfit for office if convicted of a crime, with a staggering 79-17% majority. This sentiment is echoed in their dissatisfaction with him as the nominee, as 79-18% express their discontent. Furthermore, a significant majority of 83-12% reject Trump’s assertion that Biden did not legitimately win in 2020, a key pillar of his campaign.
According to recent signs, it appears that supporters of Haley are distancing themselves from Trump. A significant 76% of Haley voters are against a federal abortion ban, and 60% believe that most undocumented immigrants should have the opportunity to apply for legal status. In a specific survey conducted in California, it was found that Haley’s voters expressed overwhelming dissatisfaction with the Supreme Court ruling that removed the constitutional right to an abortion. Additionally, 54% of these voters disapproved of Trump’s performance during his time in office as president.
Haley and Trump voters also have contrasting emotional responses to the current state of affairs in the country. A significant 59% of Trump’s voters express anger towards the direction the country is heading. In contrast, only around one-third, specifically 21%, of Haley voters share this sentiment.
The November election offered another perspective through California’s open primary for the U.S. Senate. Known as a jungle primary, this unique system allows both Democrats and Republicans to run, and the top two candidates, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November election.
In the preliminary exit poll results, it was found that among Democrats in California who participated in the Senate primary, an impressive 83% expressed approval for the way President Biden is handling his job. However, the sentiment was quite different among independent voters, who are often considered swing voters in national elections. Only 35% of independents approved of Biden’s job performance, while a significant majority of 65% expressed disapproval. The disapproval rate among Republicans was even higher, with an overwhelming 92% expressing their discontent with Biden’s performance.
In the Senate open primary, Trump garnered the same level of support as Biden among his base. A significant 83% of Republicans approved of Trump’s performance as president. On the other hand, among independents, the approval rate was lower, with only 43% expressing approval and 56% disapproving. Among Democrats, a staggering 97% expressed their disapproval.
In terms of job approval among California independents, Trump outperformed Biden by a small margin of 8 percentage points. However, it is worth noting that 60% of these independents stated that they would not consider Trump suitable for the presidency if he were to be convicted of a crime. Similarly, within Trump’s own party, 28% of Republicans shared this sentiment.
A significant challenge for Biden can be seen in the economic sentiments of California Senate primary voters. Among this group, 55% expressed a negative view of the national economy, with a higher percentage of independents (66%) sharing this sentiment. Furthermore, only 14% of respondents, including 11% of independents, stated that their families are experiencing financial progress. These findings do not bode well for an incumbent president.
In the Senate open primary, a significant majority of Californians, 71%, expressed their dissatisfaction or anger regarding the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to eliminate the constitutional right to an abortion. This sentiment was shared by 62% of independents and even 34% of Republicans. Additionally, it was found that less than half of independents, only 41%, believed that most undocumented immigrants should be deported. Furthermore, a majority, 66%, of Californians rejected Trump’s baseless claim that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
Independents hold significant sway as swing voters, making it justifiable to focus on their voting behavior. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump managed to win the support of independents in six crucial swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, ultimately defeating Hillary Clinton. However, in the 2020 election, Joe Biden successfully secured the independent vote in all six of these states, with the exception of North Carolina, thereby shifting the electoral map back in favor of the Democratic Party. It is worth noting that since 1976, presidential candidates have typically emerged victorious by garnering support from independents, with only three exceptions in the 2012, 2004, and 1976 elections, as indicated by exit polls.
The upcoming general election electorate in the fall will differ from the Super Tuesday voters, not only in California but also in other states. California, which hasn’t voted for a Republican candidate for president since 1988, will have a different set of voters in the general election. Despite their dominant victories in the primaries, these results indicate that both Trump and Biden will face challenges as the campaign shifts towards the general election race.
In the California GOP primary, Trump emerged as the winner by securing 82% support from conservatives. This strong backing came from almost seven out of ten voters, according to initial exit poll results. Despite a lower turnout of white evangelical Christians, Trump’s victory was comprehensive, as he also easily gained the support of independent voters, a group where Haley has performed better in other states. Moreover, a majority of primary voters (59%) expressed enthusiasm or satisfaction with the Supreme Court ruling that ended the constitutional right to abortion. Additionally, 69% of voters favored the deportation of most undocumented immigrants. Trump’s success extended to key issues such as border security and the economy, where he enjoyed broad support.
In Virginia, the turnout of white evangelical Christians was lower compared to other Southern states. While only 39% of them participated in the primary, they remained one of the strongest support groups for Trump, with 79% backing him. Among this group, two-thirds identified as conservatives, and Trump enjoyed 77% support from them. Independents were evenly divided between Haley and Trump, with a slight edge for Trump at 49-48%. Among the 10% of Virginia GOP primary voters who identified as Democrats, Haley won the majority with 84%. Trump also split the vote among college graduates with Haley, but he easily secured the support of non-graduates, winning with 78%. With his broad appeal among core Republicans and his success in various voter groups, Trump achieved a decisive victory in Virginia.
In the North Carolina primary, Trump had a favorable environment. The majority of voters, 78%, identified themselves as conservatives, with half of them being “very” conservative. Additionally, 53% of voters were white evangelical Christians. Trump also found support among those without a college degree, making up 56% of the voters. These demographics were strong bases for Trump’s campaign. Another factor that played in his favor was the prevailing anti-immigrant sentiment, with 41% of voters considering it their top issue. In comparison, 33% cited the economy as their main concern. Furthermore, 63% of voters supported the deportation of most undocumented immigrants. Surprisingly, a significant number of voters, 65%, believed that Trump would be fit for office even if convicted of a crime. However, it’s worth noting that 31% of Republican primary voters disagreed with this perspective.
In the California Senate primary, a majority of voters expressed their disapproval of President Trump’s job performance. Among these dissatisfied voters, 47% cast their votes for Schiff, who gained prominence as the House leader during Trump’s initial impeachment. Meanwhile, Republican candidate Steve Garvey secured a significant 80% of the Republican vote in the race. However, his support diminished to 41% among independent voters and received minimal backing from Democrats.
Exit polls have been conducted in a total of six states to date for the Republican contests. These states include Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, North Carolina, and Virginia. The results from these exit polls provide valuable insights into the turnout of pro-Trump groups and highlight demographic differences compared to general election voters. Specifically, the GOP primary electorate consists of a higher proportion of conservatives, white individuals, white evangelicals, and older voters.
In these 2024 Republican primaries, a significant majority of voters share Trump’s belief that Biden’s election was illegitimate. They also support the deportation of most undocumented immigrants and believe that Trump would still be capable of holding office even if convicted of a crime. While a smaller percentage, 41%, favor a federal ban on abortion. The majority, 82%, express negative views about the economy, and 85% are dissatisfied or even angry with the current state of affairs in the country. However, only 36% consider themselves part of Trump’s MAGA movement.
