The United States assesses that Iran is adjusting its plans for a significant retaliatory strike against Israel. The goal is to send a message without igniting a regional conflict that would force Washington to intervene.
According to two anonymous U.S. officials familiar with sensitive discussions, the Biden administration believes that Iran is preparing to launch a significant aerial attack on Israel in the near future. This attack is expected to involve a combination of missiles and drone strikes.
Both officials expressed caution about Iran’s ability to successfully strike Israel without eliciting a military response from the United States. They acknowledged that any attack would escalate tensions in the Middle East and potentially lead to a larger conflict. However, the Biden administration believes that Iran is not interested in further exacerbating the regional crisis, and this consideration may be influencing Tehran’s decision-making process.
The National Security Council chose not to provide a comment. However, President Joe Biden, in a news conference on Wednesday, stated that Iran was posing a threat by planning to launch a substantial attack on Israel.
“We are fully committed to ensuring Israel’s security in the face of these threats from Iran and its proxies,” Biden emphasized, standing alongside Japan’s prime minister. “We will take every possible measure to safeguard Israel’s security.”
In the wake of the devastating attack on a diplomatic facility in Damascus, Iranian leaders have issued explicit warnings, vowing to respond with great force. Iran’s supreme leader has made it clear that Israel will face punishment for its role in the incident.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei expressed his strong condemnation of the attack on the consulate, stating that it was tantamount to an attack on their soil. He emphasized that the responsible party must be held accountable for their actions and face the appropriate consequences.
According to one U.S. official, the Biden administration is anticipating Iran’s response in the next few days, possibly as early as this weekend. The second official stated that they are still within the timeframe for Iran to provide a response. However, Iran is being cautious and aiming to carefully gauge their actions so as not to overstep their boundaries.
The first U.S. official revealed that the U.S. is utilizing existing channels to send direct messages to Iran. The primary objective of these messages is to prevent any potential attack from escalating tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. officials typically engage in communication with Iran through intermediaries, given that formal diplomatic relations between the two countries have been absent for over four decades. However, direct channels of communication are still feasible, including engaging with Iran’s mission at the United Nations.
Nate Evans, a spokesperson for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, refrained from commenting on diplomatic conversations. Likewise, the Iranian mission at the U.N. did not respond to a voicemail seeking comment. The Israeli embassy in Washington also remained silent on the matter when approached for a comment.
According to State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has engaged in discussions with senior officials from various countries such as Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia this week. The purpose of these conversations was to urge these countries to caution Iran against further exacerbating the crisis.
Miller emphasized the importance of engaging with European allies and partners in order to convey a clear message to Iran. He stressed that escalation is not beneficial for Iran, the region, or the world.
Brett McGurk, the White House’s top Middle East official, has recently engaged in discussions with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Iraq. These conversations serve two purposes: to enhance preparedness for future events and to communicate de-escalatory messages to Iran.
During a telephone conversation with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made it clear that Israel would not hesitate to retaliate in the event of an Iranian attack. Gallant emphasized to Austin that any direct aggression from Iran would result in a fitting and necessary response from Israel. He firmly stated that the State of Israel will not tolerate any form of Iranian attack on its territory.
The United States anticipates that Iran will employ a combination of drones and missiles to carry out the strike. This attack could originate from Iran itself, or it could involve the use of Iranian proxies in the region, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, which is situated right along Israel’s northern border. The strike may involve a mix of both these methods.
According to experts, the extent of Iran’s response will be crucial in determining whether the situation escalates. Although officials did not provide specific information on whether Iran intends to target Israeli military assets or civilian locations, it is evident that the potential Iranian retaliation will play a significant role in the development of events.
“The outcome and impact of this strike will play a crucial role in deciding whether this situation escalates into a larger regional conflict, possibly involving the United States,” stated Mick Mulroy, a former Department of Defense official, Marine, and retired CIA officer.
