According to a study recently published by the Journal of Applied Meteorology, Tornado Alley, which has been traditionally located over the Great Plains, may be shifting further east. Henderson, Kentucky, for instance, could be included in the newly emerging Tornado Alley.
According to Meteorologist Christine Wielgos from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Paducah, people are now more aware of the increasing number of tornadoes not only in Oklahoma and Kansas but also in other areas. Wielgos has been working with the NWS since 2000 and has personally witnessed the rise in tornado activity in our region.
Wielgos notes that there has been a significant rise in the frequency of tornadoes as well as their severity, path lengths, and intensity. “It’s not just the number of tornadoes that have increased, but also the seasonal patterns they follow,” he explains.
In comparing the number of tornadoes, EF-1 or stronger, the study focused on two time periods: 1951 to 1985 and 1986 to 2020. The findings revealed that Mississippi and western Kentucky experienced the highest rates of increase in tornadoes between the two periods. Meanwhile, a significant decrease in tornadoes is observed in traditional Tornado Alley, as shown in blue.
Between 1951 and 1986, the Paducah region witnessed 279 tornadoes. However, from 1986 to 2020, this number nearly tripled to 780. Interestingly, the number of stronger EF-3 or higher rated tornadoes remained constant during both periods. The surge in the number of tornadoes can largely be attributed to the advancements in weather technology, according to Wielgos.
Wielgos explains that before 1973, damage surveys were not conducted, which makes up a significant portion of the early data they analyzed. However, with the advancements in technology and research, it has become evident that some of the wind damage recorded in the 90s was actually caused by tornadoes.
According to Dr. Dan Chavas, from the atmospheric science department at Purdue University, it is important to gain a deeper understanding of tornado activity in order to determine how it may shift in the future. This includes questions such as whether there will be more or fewer tornadoes, and whether the regions where they occur will change. Dr. Chavas emphasizes the need to understand why tornadoes occur in certain areas in the first place in order to make accurate predictions for the future.
