Donald Trump, the former President, is on the verge of being nominated for the third time for the presidency. He has an edge over his rivals when it comes to being trusted to handle key issues in the election. However, there are obstacles in his path, such as his felony convictions, that have prevented him from exploiting President Joe Biden’s mistakes to the fullest.
According to a recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released on Thursday, both candidates are tied in terms of popularity. However, despite the close race, two-thirds of Americans suggest that Biden should withdraw from the race following his lackluster debate performance. Furthermore, a staggering 85% of respondents believe that Biden is too old to run for another term, while Trump enjoys a significant lead in terms of perceived mental and physical fitness.
One of the reasons why Trump’s approval rating has suffered is due to his own shortcomings. According to a recent survey, 59% of Americans believe that he was rightfully convicted of 34 felonies in a New York court. On the other hand, only 38% accept his claim that the convictions were unjust. Interestingly, almost half of the survey respondents (49%) think that he should be sentenced to prison for those crimes while 47% do not agree with this.
The complete results can be found in the PDF format.
According to recent polls, there is a potential risk for former President Trump as 22% of his supporters have stated that they would reconsider (16%) or completely drop (6%) their support for him if he were to be jailed. Interestingly, a similar percentage of supporters expressed similar sentiments in April, stating that they would reconsider or abandon their support if Trump were to be convicted of felonies. Despite being convicted, Trump’s support has remained steady, although it has not increased, even in light of Biden’s challenges.
According to a recent poll by Langer Research Associates for ABC, and with fieldwork conducted by Ipsos, Trump faces several challenges beyond his criminal record. He falls behind Biden in terms of personal popularity, perceived honesty and trustworthiness, and even in the area of “protecting American democracy.” The poll also reveals that among those who do not currently support Trump, a whopping 90% have no intention of doing so in the future, highlighting the deep polarization within the electorate.
The dissatisfaction with both presidential candidates, Biden and Trump, is striking and even among those who haven’t supported Biden, he encounters a similar level of rejection. According to recent polls, a staggering 71% of Americans are unhappy with the selection of these major-party nominees. This figure is significantly higher than the 58% of individuals who were dissatisfied with the Trump-Clinton matchup in 2016, which was considered the most unpopular race at that time.
Strengths
According to recent polls, Trump’s supporters have a stronger backing for their candidate compared to Biden’s supporters. A whopping 57% of Trump’s supporters strongly favor him, while only 34% of Biden’s supporters have the same level of support for their candidate. Interestingly, Biden’s strong support has decreased by 10 percentage points since April, following his widely criticized performance in the June 27 debate.
It’s worth noting that 30% of Biden’s supporters are mainly driven by their dislike of Trump rather than their support for Biden. On the other hand, only 12% of Trump’s supporters feel the same way towards Biden. Despite the negative motivation, this statistic gives Biden an advantage in countering Trump’s fervent support.
It’s important to note that not all of Trump’s supporters are completely enamored with the current election cycle. In fact, half of them express dissatisfaction with the choice between Biden and Trump. However, when it comes to Biden’s supporters, the level of dissatisfaction reaches a staggering 82%.
Issues
Inflation reaching a 40-year high in 2022 has had a lasting impact on Americans’ financial well-being, which could benefit Trump’s political ambitions. According to a recent survey, 42% of Americans feel they are worse off financially now than they were when Biden assumed office, while only 17% feel they are better off. This trend has persisted since February 2023, with more than 40% of Americans consistently feeling worse off financially. This is the longest period of sustained financial decline since the Reagan era, highlighting the severity of the issue.
According to a recent survey, 89% of Americans consider the economy to be a highly important factor in their vote, given the inflation burn. Additionally, 85% of respondents cited rising prices as a top concern. Out of the 11 issues tested in the study, these two ranked the highest in importance. The survey also revealed that Trump is currently leading Biden by 10 points in terms of trust to handle the economy and 11 points on inflation.
According to recent polls, Trump has a significant lead of 14 points in terms of trust to handle immigration, even though only 66% of respondents consider it as a top issue. Additionally, he leads by 9 points when it comes to trust to handle the Israel/Hamas war, which is currently ranked last in terms of high importance. Trump also leads by 7 points in trust to handle crime and safety.
When it comes to specific issues, Biden is currently leading the charge with a 13-point lead on access to abortion, which ranks second to last on the list of importance. He also holds a 6-point lead on protecting democracy and handling healthcare, as well as a 4-point lead on appointments to the U.S. Supreme Court.
It is worth mentioning that after the debate two weeks ago, Trump did not make any improvements on these measures. Surprisingly, there was a significant shift in the opposite direction, particularly in safeguarding American democracy. From being tied back in April, Biden now holds a significant lead with a score of +6.
Methodology
An online survey was conducted by ABC News, the Washington Post, and Ipsos via the Ipsos KnowledgePanel® from July 5 to 9, 2024. The survey was done in English and Spanish, with 2,431 adults randomly selected from a national sample. The partisan breakdown includes 32% Democrats, 29% Republicans, and 27% independents. The margin of sampling error, including the design effect, for the full sample is 2 percentage points. It should be noted that differences in polls are not solely attributed to sampling error.
