A recent poll shows that former President Donald Trump is gaining more support among young voters, further narrowing President Joe Biden’s lead.
According to a recently released Harvard Youth Poll, among individuals aged 18 to 29, Biden is currently leading Trump with 45 percent support, while Trump has 37 percent support. There is still a significant portion of the youth population, approximately 16 percent, who are undecided. It is worth noting that Biden’s lead over Trump has decreased compared to the 2020 election, where he held a 23 percentage point advantage among young voters.
According to the latest data, Biden’s lead over Trump is even more apparent when considering registered and likely voters. However, it is worth noting that his advantage among likely voters under the age of 30 has decreased compared to four years ago. While Biden currently holds a 19-point lead in this demographic, it is a significant drop from his 30-point advantage during the same period in the previous election.
Biden maintains a significant advantage among likely voters who are non-white and women, with leads of 43 points and 33 points over Trump, respectively. Among the more educated demographic, Biden holds a commanding lead, surpassing the presumptive Republican nominee by 47 points among likely voters who are college graduates and by 23 points among college students.
Biden’s lead narrows significantly or disappears altogether when it comes to other important demographics. Among likely voters who are young men, Biden holds a mere 6 percentage point advantage over Trump, according to the poll. Similarly, his lead among white voters is only 3 points. In the case of young people without college degrees, Biden and Trump are evenly matched.
According to the poll, Trump’s younger voters are more enthusiastic about the former president compared to their peers who support Biden. The survey revealed that over three-quarters of Trump voters expressed their enthusiastic support for the Republican candidate, while only 44 percent of Biden voters shared the same level of enthusiasm.
A recent survey conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs gathered insights from 2,010 Americans aged 18 to 29. The survey, which took place from March 14 to 21, provides a comprehensive snapshot of the opinions and perspectives of this demographic. The margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points. To ensure a diverse range of participants, respondents were randomly recruited from an online panel.
According to John Della Volpe, an expert on polling young voters and the polling director for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, it is important to recognize that the youth electorate in today’s political landscape is distinct from what we witnessed in 2020 and 2022. Young voters are driven by different motivations and priorities.
According to him, economic concerns are at the forefront of people’s minds, with housing being a significant worry. Additionally, there is a noticeable disparity between the political preferences of young men and young women.
The latest survey conducted by Harvard reveals that Trump’s popularity is on the rise among the younger generation, which could be a cause for concern for Democrats. Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have been able to effectively appeal to this demographic.
Biden’s lead among likely voters varies depending on their age group. Among those aged 25 to 29, his lead stands at a solid 26 points. However, among the younger demographic of 18 to 24-year-olds, his lead narrows down to 14 points.
The survey also reveals some potential concerns for Trump. If the former president is convicted in any of his criminal trials, Biden’s lead expands. Among all young adults, the Democrat sees a jump of 10 points, while among registered voters and likely voters, Biden’s lead increases by 8 and 9 points respectively.
However, the presence of third-party candidates poses a potential challenge to Biden’s lead, which has been a concern for Democrats. According to the Harvard pollsters, Biden would still secure the majority of the youth vote even if individuals like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein were on the ballot. Nonetheless, his margin of victory may be reduced to just a few points.
Only 31 percent of younger adults approve of Biden’s job performance.
Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict has the potential to affect his electoral prospects. According to a recent survey, a significant majority of young adults, regardless of their political affiliation or demographic background, are in favor of a permanent cease-fire in Gaza. This viewpoint is supported by 51 percent of young adults, while only 10 percent oppose it. It is worth noting that Biden has not explicitly called for a permanent cease-fire, which may have implications for his support among this demographic.
Only 20% of young Americans find Israel’s response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 incursion justified, whereas 32% believe it is not.
