After delivering his State of the Union address in March, President Biden experienced a significant boost in the polls. This surge not only revitalized his campaign but also injected new energy into the Democratic Party.
Only two months have passed, but it seems that Biden’s quiet comeback is losing momentum.
In mid-April, there was a surge in Biden’s popularity, giving the impression that he had finally found his momentum and would carry it through to the election. However, recent polls suggest a more pessimistic outlook.
According to a recent national poll conducted by CNN, former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head horserace, with 49 percent of the respondents favoring Trump and 43 percent favoring Biden. The poll also reveals that only one-third (34 percent) of the voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, a significant factor that often influences how Americans cast their votes.
According to consumer sentiment, Democrats may have reason to worry about Biden’s electoral fate. A significant 65 percent of registered voters consider the economy to be of utmost importance to them. When examining how this group of voters, who prioritize the economy, plans to vote, projections indicate that Biden could face a significant defeat. He is estimated to lose by a margin of over 30 points, with only 30 percent of these voters supporting him compared to 62 percent who do not.
According to Fox News state-level polling, Trump has regained his lead, despite the ongoing New York City trial, which has had little impact on his popularity. The poll reveals that Trump is ahead of Biden in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin ranging from 1 to 5 points. This indicates that Trump’s chances of winning are gradually diminishing.
According to Fox News, a majority of voters in each state believe that the Trump “hush money” trial is fair and appropriate. However, it is interesting to note that even if a guilty verdict is reached, most voters, especially Republicans, state that it would not affect their willingness to vote for Trump. In fact, in many cases, it would actually increase their likelihood to vote for him.
These two polls clearly show that Trump is once again leading, despite the fact that he has been found in contempt and faced the threat of jail time. These polls indicate a concerning trend for the Biden campaign, which may have previously believed that the momentum was shifting in their favor after the State of the Union.
During the period from February to mid-April, Biden consistently made progress in the polls, closing the gap with Trump. At one point, he even surpassed Trump’s popularity in 18 national polls.
Biden was making significant progress, achieving a string of victories that included boosting economic sentiment, a crucial measure the administration was fervently working to improve. Meanwhile, Trump’s focus shifted to the courtroom rather than the campaign trail, capturing the media’s attention.
During Trump’s court battle, Biden successfully garnered significant donations to increase his financial advantage over his opponent. At a Radio City fundraiser, Biden, along with former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, managed to raise an impressive $25 million, setting a new record for campaign fundraising.
Republican infighting has been prominently showcased in the House, resulting in damage to the credibility of the entire party. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) recently declared her intention to initiate a vote to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who had relied on Democratic support to push through a series of foreign aid bills last week. Adding to the turmoil, the Republican National Committee, the GOP’s primary fundraising organization, was hit by a scandal, leading to significant layoffs and changes in leadership.
However, despite all the momentum, Biden’s surge seems to have come to a halt.
As I mentioned previously, one month ago, the main challenge for Biden’s reelection lies in the general perception that he has a negative impact on the economy and people’s personal finances. Unfortunately, with inflation persisting and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, along with widespread protests against Israel on American college campuses and an open southern border, Biden has made little effort to alter these perceptions.
Biden’s performance in three key areas – the economy, foreign policy, and immigration – has seen a significant decline since taking office. According to Harvard/Harris, in January 2020, 61 percent of people approved of Biden’s handling of the economy, 60 percent approved of his approach to foreign affairs, and 57 percent approved of his management of immigration.
According to the most recent Harvard/Harris poll released last week, Biden’s approval rating across all three metrics is currently below water. Specifically, he has a 42 percent approval rating on the economy, 42 percent on foreign affairs, and 38 percent on immigration.
Biden seems to be jumping from one crisis to another, unable to effectively manage or lead the country. Whether it’s the economic pessimism caused by inflation, the ongoing issue of immigration at the southern border, or the growing chaos on college campuses, these challenges seem to be overwhelming his ability to govern.
It is important to note that this is not meant to imply that the election is guaranteed for Trump. He still has numerous legal challenges ahead of him, and the results of the GOP primary indicate that Nikki Haley continues to garner significant support, even after dropping out of the race.
Progressives, whose anger at Biden’s support for Israel has reached a boiling point, are raising legitimate questions about whether they will refuse to vote for him if it means potentially paving the way for a Trump presidency. This concern has the potential to create chaos at the Democratic National Convention this summer.
After a short period of apparent success, where it seemed like Biden had finally found his stride, his popularity is once again declining while Trump’s support is growing. This is undoubtedly a cause for concern among Democrats as the November election draws near.
Douglas E. Schoen, a renowned political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research, brings a wealth of experience and expertise to the table. With a background as an advisor to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg, Schoen’s insights are invaluable. He recently published a thought-provoking book titled “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat,” which delves into the pressing issues facing our world today.
