Mocobizscene-For the past two decades, engineer Dale Link has been providing a comprehensive hurricane forecast for the United States and other parts of the world. Instead of predicting the number of hurricanes in a particular season, his forecast focuses on identifying the areas where these storms are most likely to make landfall, giving them a 50-50 chance.
Another hurricane forecast: where will they go?
In January, he releases these forecasts as an early heads-up, highlighting different zones for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2024. Texas, along with the east coast of Florida, falls under one of those zones. Take a look:
According to Dale, he has an accuracy rate of 81%, although the accuracy may vary from year to year. Let’s take a look at his forecast for the year 2023, which he made last year:
Last year’s tracks show that they were quite similar. South Texas did not experience any significant weather events, except for a forgettable tropical storm named Harold. You can judge for yourself how accurate Dale’s forecast was, but I believe it was fairly reasonable.
Dale utilizes a straightforward approach for forecasting. He examines the tracks of tropical disturbances, depressions, storms, and hurricanes from the last one to two years. By carefully observing these tracks from start to finish, Dale can identify patterns that are likely to repeat in the near future. To access Dale’s previous forecasts and learn more about his methodology, you can visit his webpage.
HEADS UP FROM EL NINO!
The latest predictions for our ongoing powerful El Nino indicate that it will transition to a neutral phase by next August/September. This is important information because El Nino typically deters hurricanes from hitting Texas.
Without El Nino, our vulnerability increases. Keep an eye on the latest forecast and track the downward trend of El Nino indicated by the darker purple line. The forecast suggests that El Nino will dissipate by the peak of the hurricane season, if it turns out to be accurate (and it usually is).
Expect a brief break from the rain as the next couple of days will be dry. However, don’t get too comfortable, as more rain is on the way for Friday morning.
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