Nikki Haley is putting all her efforts into the Virginia GOP primary, aiming to secure a significant number of delegates or possibly even win in a state where her message has the potential to resonate with the demographics.
To secure a favorable outcome, Haley must garner significant support from Northern Virginia, as this region’s suburban voters, located outside of Washington, D.C., have the potential to counterbalance the influence of former President Trump in the southern part of the state.
Despite questions about whether Haley will continue to challenge Trump beyond Super Tuesday, her campaign remains hopeful of a strong performance in Virginia.
According to Tucker Martin, a Republican strategist from Virginia, the state is politically and demographically favorable for her. Virginia has a highly educated population and a significant presence of traditional Republicans.
In Virginia, Haley is encountering the same predicament she faces in other areas, as Trump continues to exert his influence over the Republican Party.
In a recent poll conducted by Roanoke College, it was found that if Nikki Haley were to run against President Biden in a general election, she would have a strong advantage, leading with 49 percent of the votes compared to Biden’s 40 percent. However, when it comes to support within the Republican party, the poll showed that Trump holds a significant lead over Haley in Virginia. A whopping 75 percent of self-identified Republicans expressed their support for Trump, while only 15 percent stated the same for Haley. This sentiment is echoed in The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ polling average, which shows Trump maintaining a commanding lead over Haley in Virginia, with 78 percent of the votes compared to Haley’s 19 percent.
According to Martin, if she were the nominee in the general election, she would have a good chance of winning Virginia. However, the challenge lies in the fact that we’re currently discussing a Tuesday in March, not a Tuesday in November. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on the voters who show up on election day.
“It’s the never-ending irony of this era,” Martin remarked, highlighting the ongoing irony within the Republican party.
Haley’s campaign, despite being behind Trump in the polls, is confident about the momentum it has gained heading into Super Tuesday. Just recently, her campaign proudly announced that it managed to raise an impressive $12 million in the month of February.
The question of which electorate will show up is a significant uncertainty in Virginia on Tuesday. Virginia operates with an open primary system, allowing Democrats and independents to potentially participate in the GOP primary. However, it’s worth noting that Democrats will also be conducting their own presidential primary in Virginia on the same day, and Joe Biden is anticipated to dominate that race.
Trump’s base in Virginia extends beyond the educated, suburban electorate in Northern Virginia and the greater Richmond area. Strategists emphasize the significant influence of Trump’s base in rural areas west of Charlottesville, which played a crucial role in Governor Glenn Youngkin’s successful campaign in 2021.
Bob Holsworth, an experienced Virginia political analyst, dismisses the notion that Youngkin performed well in the suburbs. According to Holsworth, Youngkin actually emerged victorious in areas that strongly supported former President Trump.
The enthusiasm of voters to participate in the upcoming March election remains uncertain, particularly with the growing likelihood of a Trump-Biden contest.
According to Martin, the level of intensity plays a crucial role in low-turnout elections. He emphasizes that Trump voters are particularly motivated and have a strong backing for the former president. Martin anticipates that these voters will actively participate and cast their votes in the upcoming election.
On Saturday, Trump will be heading to Richmond to hold a get-out-the-vote rally in anticipation of Tuesday’s election. In the meantime, Haley has already begun her campaign trail in Virginia, making stops in Richmond and the suburban area of Falls Church.
While campaigning outside of the nation’s capital, Haley focused on addressing the contentious issue of reproductive rights. This issue has been a source of concern for Republicans, especially in Virginia.
“I understand that in Virginia, there have been extensive discussions surrounding the topic of abortion,” conveyed Haley to the audience in Falls Church. “It is crucial that we move away from vilifying this issue and instead focus on making it more relatable and compassionate.”
In addition to her remarks on the Alabama Supreme Court ruling, Haley shared her personal journey with fertility treatments, shedding light on the ongoing national discourse surrounding in vitro fertilization (IVF). She opened up about her own experience and the challenges she faced, further contributing to the conversation.
More than 1,000 people gathered in the ballroom at the Westin Hotel in Falls Church to hear Haley deliver her stump speech during the event. Her supporters filled the venue, eager to listen to the presidential candidate.
Ed Linz, a supporter of Haley from Northern Virginia who attended Thursday’s rally, expressed his belief that she is a viable alternative in case Trump is unable to run for some reason. He stated, “I pray each night” and hopes that Trump is either in jail or facing some other obstacle. Linz also mentioned that if Haley is able to generate enthusiasm, the party will consider her as a strong alternative option.
Barbara Knight, a fellow supporter of Haley from Northern Virginia who was present at the rally, expressed the same sentiment.
Knight expressed his support for her to continue her campaign after Super Tuesday, stating that having someone prepared and waiting in the wings is crucial in case unexpected developments occur.
However, when Virginia supporters of Haley were asked if she could win their home state on Tuesday, they expressed uncertainty and refrained from making any predictions.
Knight expressed his desire for a successful outcome, saying, “God, I wish… I just hope she gets a good showing, that’s all. It could be 20 or 30 percent and I would be happy.”
Michael Govan, who also supports Haley, expressed some uncertainty during the event on Thursday.
“I’m not sure. I really don’t know,” Govan admitted. Yet, he did mention that Haley’s reasoning for remaining in the race wasn’t necessarily just to be on standby in case Trump couldn’t run.
“He believes that she genuinely cares about improving our country and is passionate about addressing both domestic and international issues. She truly believes that she can have a positive impact and make a difference.”
He added confidently, “And I truly believe it.”
