President Biden is encountering concerning indicators in Georgia, the state he successfully turned blue for the first time in decades during the 2020 elections. These indicators include low voter turnout in the primaries and a dearth of significant down-ballot races that could rally his base of supporters.
In the previous election cycle, Biden emerged victorious in the Peach State with a narrow margin of fewer than 12,000 votes, defeating former President Trump. However, recent polls indicate that the tides may be turning, as the former president currently holds an advantage over Biden as they prepare for a potential rematch in 2024.
Democrats admit that there is still work to be done by Biden in order to rally voters, as the state is expected to once again have a crucial impact in the upcoming November election.
According to Atlanta-based Democratic strategist Fred Hicks, Democrats in Georgia are facing a challenge due to an enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. The crucial question for Democrats is not about their choice of candidate in the upcoming elections, but rather whether they will turn out to vote or not.
In Georgia’s Democratic primary last week, Biden emerged as the clear winner, receiving over 95 percent of the vote. However, the total number of voters for the contest was slightly below 290,000, as reported by Decision Desk HQ.
In the Republican primary, Donald Trump secured an impressive 85 percent of the vote, demonstrating strong support among Georgians. The GOP race also witnessed a significant increase in voter turnout, with nearly 590,000 individuals casting their ballots. This turnout was almost double that of the opposing party’s primary.
Strategists emphasize that the outcome of the primary election does not necessarily reflect how Georgians will vote in the general election. However, the voter turnout will play a crucial role in the state. It is worth noting that Trump emerged as the winner in Georgia in 2016, while Biden secured a narrow victory, winning by a margin of just one-quarter of 1 percent in the 2020 election.
Democratic strategist Abigail Collazo, who has experience in Georgia, believes that the outcome of the upcoming election is uncertain. She emphasizes that in a year like this, nothing can be assumed or relied upon, especially when it comes to winning over Black and minority voters, who are crucial for the success of the Biden campaign.
The previous election witnessed an unprecedented level of voter participation in Georgia, as Biden ran against the incumbent Trump. The presence of other significant races on the ballot further motivated voters.
During the tumultuous year of 2020, Georgia Democrats displayed an impressive show of support, not only to remove Trump from office but also to secure significant victories for the party. They accomplished this by electing Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, as the state’s inaugural Jewish senator, while also making history by electing Rev. Raphael Warnock as the state’s first Black senator. The fervent turnout of Georgia Democrats during the COVID-19 pandemic exemplified their determination and commitment to bringing about meaningful change in their state.
In an interesting turn of events, Georgia decided to merge its presidential preference primary and general primary into a single election in June last year. However, this year, the state has returned to holding these elections on separate dates.
Hicks raised an important question: Can Biden-Harris replicate the Democratic turnout of 2020, considering that this race lacks the historic significance of previous elections?
Biden will need to rally the support of Pennsylvania’s sizable Black population in his bid for reelection. This key group comprises about a third of the state’s population and holds significant sway in this battleground state. However, recent polls indicate that Biden is facing challenges in maintaining his national standing among this demographic.
According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, approximately 6,000 Georgians chose to leave their ballots blank in the Democratic primary, as part of a progressive movement in various states to express dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
The Biden administration will also need to address ongoing immigration concerns, which have been intensified by the tragic death of Georgia student Laken Riley. This unfortunate incident has thrust the state into the heart of an already contentious partisan discourse surrounding immigration. A Venezuelan citizen has been arrested and charged with murder in relation to Riley’s death, leading many on the right to connect the tragedy with Biden’s approach to border control.
During his State of the Union address earlier this month, President Biden acknowledged the tragic death of Laken Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an undocumented individual. Responding to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s heckling, Biden emphasized that while this incident was indeed heartbreaking, it is also important to address the larger issue of thousands of people being killed by legal citizens. He expressed his heartfelt condolences to Laken Riley’s parents, empathizing with their painful loss by drawing from his own experience of losing children.
According to a recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill, Trump is currently leading Biden by 8 points on the issue of immigration in Georgia. Additionally, when it comes to a general election rematch, polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill indicate that Trump is ahead of Biden by 5 points.
According to Republican strategist Jay Williams, in order for Biden to have a better chance of winning in the state, he would need to take a more assertive approach towards the border issue.
According to Ben Taylor, a professor of political science at Kennesaw State University in Georgia, there are positive signs for both White House contenders.
According to Taylor, if he were running either of these campaigns today, he would prefer to be in the Trump campaign’s position. However, he acknowledges that the situation is still very precarious.
In Georgia, Trump encounters obstacles of his own, as he has been indicted on criminal charges for his alleged involvement in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results in the state. It is worth noting that a judge recently dismissed certain charges related to Trump’s notorious phone call, in which he urged Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” enough votes to reverse Biden’s victory. However, Trump is still confronted with ten counts in this case.
Audrey Haynes, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia, expressed concerns about the upcoming election, emphasizing the high stakes involved and the potential impact of a Trump loss. Haynes highlighted the significance of individual votes and the uncertainty surrounding the consequences if Trump were to repeat past strategies and face defeat.
Haynes questioned whether this event would be the final blow or if it would be followed by claims of rigged outcomes and threats to throw the entire country into chaos.
Trump continued to dominate the early wins in the GOP primary, while his former opponent, Nikki Haley, managed to secure around 13 percent support. It is worth noting that a significant portion of the approximately 77,000 ballots in her column may have been cast after Haley withdrew from the race on March 6. This suggests that these votes could be seen as a form of protest against Trump.
The presence of tens of thousands of Haley voters in a state that Biden won by a slim margin of just 12,000 votes last cycle presents a valuable opportunity for his reelection campaign. It provides a chance to appeal to disillusioned Republicans and encourage them to join the Democratic camp.
According to Taylor, even if those voters do not switch parties, they could still create a challenge for Trump if they choose not to participate in the election.
According to Taylor, keeping Georgia within reach for the Biden campaign is beneficial not only for securing Electoral College votes but also from a strategic standpoint. By forcing the Trump campaign to exhaust their resources in Georgia, it puts them at a disadvantage towards the end of the election when they may not have enough funds left.
According to Mark Rountree, a Republican pollster from Georgia, the votes in favor of Haley would pose a significant challenge for Trump if the general election were to take place at this moment. However, he believes that with another six months of advertising and messaging, Trump could potentially win back many of those voters.
Biden and Trump have secured the necessary delegates in Georgia, Washington, and Mississippi, ensuring their respective party nominations. This sets the stage for a highly anticipated rematch in November, which many believe will be a closely contested battle. In the recent week, both candidates held separate campaign events in Georgia, adding to the excitement surrounding their upcoming face-off.
Keron Blair, the chief organizing and field officer of the progressive New Georgia Project Action Fund, emphasized the significance of Georgia in the competitive political landscape. According to Blair, Republicans cannot secure victory without the support and participation of the state.
Blair emphasized the importance for Democrats to continue investing in Georgia and pushing for a competitive electoral race.
