Donald Trump is currently in a strong position, leading both in Republicans’ preferences and in terms of delegates ahead of the Super Tuesday contests. However, it is worth considering the significance of Nikki Haley’s consistent ability to secure a significant portion of the vote in the early primaries, and how this may impact the upcoming Super Tuesday.
According to recent data, the majority of Republicans are not willing to deviate from their party allegiance in the upcoming November elections. An overwhelming 96% of self-identified Republicans across the nation have expressed their intention to vote for Trump in a hypothetical matchup against President Joe Biden. Interestingly, Nikki Haley’s support in primary contests has primarily come from independent voters and a few Democrats who have crossed over to participate in GOP primaries. However, she faces a somewhat less favorable response from self-identified Republicans.
Nikki Haley maintains an advantage over Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election against Joe Biden. This is primarily due to her ability to appeal to independents, moderates, and women on a national scale. However, if she is not chosen as the GOP nominee, there is a possibility that the party could be missing out on potential voters.
In a head-to-head comparison between Biden and Trump, the former Vice President is currently trailing by four points among likely voters nationwide. However, when pitted against Haley, Biden’s deficit widens to nine points.
Nikki Haley Outperforms Trump in Key Demographic Groups
In contrast to Trump, Nikki Haley holds a strong lead over Joe Biden among women. She also manages to maintain an even standing among moderates, a group that Trump tends to lose to Biden. Furthermore, Haley’s appeal extends to independents, where she outperforms Trump by a significant margin – holding a two-to-one lead over Mr. Biden among this crucial voter segment.
Currently, 13% of voters who would opt for Haley in a Biden-Haley faceoff plan to vote for Mr. Biden if his opponent happens to be Donald Trump.
Who are these defectors?
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- Few are Republicans. Six in 10 describe themselves as independents, and most are women. Most don’t hold college degrees.
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- Most of them voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, but that doesn’t mean they like him: eight in 10 would be voting for Mr. Biden this time around in order to oppose Donald Trump.
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- They are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with a potential Biden-Trump matchup: three in four call the match-up “depressing”, and nearly nine in 10 want other choices. Three- quarters would like to see a new, third political party to compete with the Democrats and Republicans.
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- Most don’t think either Trump or Mr. Biden has the physical or mental health to be president.
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- They aren’t particularly pleased with Mr. Biden’s tenure in the White House, but they are even more negative when looking back at Trump’s term in office. While six in 10 view Biden’s presidency as only “fair,” three in four say Trump’s presidency was “poor.”
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- Most say the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border is a very serious problem (though not a crisis), and most think Trump, not Biden, would decrease the number of migrants trying to cross. But eight in 10 think the overturning of Roe v. Wade was bad for the country, and that the Republican Party has gone too far in restricting abortion. Most put some of the blame on Donald Trump.
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- After the economy, their top concern is the state of democracy. Most think the state of democracy is threatened. Nearly all think Donald Trump tried to stay in office illegally, and most think democracy and the rule of law will only be safe if Mr. Biden wins. They overwhelmingly think that Trump would not be fit to be president if convicted of any of the crimes for which he is currently facing charges.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump maintains a strong grip on the Republican Party. A staggering 70% of registered Republican voters emphasize the utmost importance of remaining loyal to Trump. Additionally, a striking 90% of these voters concur that Trump possesses a clear vision for the country’s future, aligning with their own beliefs.
According to a recent survey conducted by CBS News/YouGov, a total of 2,159 U.S. adult residents were interviewed between February 28 and March 1, 2024. The survey sample was carefully selected to be nationally representative and was weighted to account for factors such as gender, age, race, education, and past vote. The margin of error for the survey results is ±2.8 points.
