According to recent polls, Kari Lake is poised to emerge as the winner of the Arizona GOP U.S. Senate primary election scheduled for Tuesday. Nevertheless, her prospects may appear less promising when she goes up against Ruben Gallego in the November election.
In the upcoming election, Lake’s opponent will be Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has been consistently behind her in the polls.
According to a report from Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights, Kari Lake is leading Mark Lamb in the GOP Senate primary with 49% to 38%. The report further stated that when uncertain voters were urged to make a decision, Lake managed to secure the desired 50% threshold of support, while Lamb’s support remained unaltered.
Lake’s platform remains aligned with Trump’s conservative policies, which have resonated well with her base. However, polls indicate that she faces challenges in attracting swing votes from independent and unaffiliated voters.
Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO, stated that Lake appears to have a promising chance of succeeding in the first challenge of the Senate race, which is to win the primary. However, in order to compete with the Democratic candidate, she will have to adjust her general election strategy to appeal to the key voter blocs that she is presently struggling to capture.
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, Lake was defeated by then Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. However, Lake has been persistently fighting to overturn the election results through a legal battle that is still ongoing. During her campaign, Lake faced criticism for her comments towards supporters of the late U.S. Sen. John McCain, telling them to “get the hell out” of a campaign event. Although she later walked back on her statement, it still raised concerns and drew attention from the public.
According to Paul Bentz, the Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy for Highground Public Affairs, Lake is likely to emerge victorious in the primary election. However, Bentz also feels that if Lake continues with her current campaign strategy, she may face difficulties in winning the general election.
According to Bentz, the candidate is facing difficulties in appealing to a wider range of voters. While she excels at energizing her base during primary campaigns, she tends to struggle against more moderate candidates in general elections. Bentz noted that she has modeled herself after Trump’s image and strategy, and appears to act like him despite not needing his support as much. “She is a very successful primary candidate and does a very good job of rallying the base,” he said, “but just as we saw in 2022, she struggles against a more centrist candidate in the general election.”
Gallego has chosen to tone down his progressive firebrand persona in order to connect with a wider range of people.
According to a spokesperson from Ruben Gallego’s campaign, Gallego is a well-established advocate for all Arizonans, regardless of their political affiliations. On the other hand, Kari Lake is incapable of uniting people and finding solutions to the most urgent issues facing Arizona. As a result, she does not uphold the values of Arizona and is destined to lose the election once again this year.
Several Republican leaders have declared their support for Lamb over Lake, despite Lake’s greater name recognition. This is because they believe Lake may not have the ability to defeat Gallego.
As per The Washington Post’s report, Randy Kendrick, a prominent GOP benefactor in Arizona, sent an email to her “Christmas card list,” advising them to refrain from casting their vote for Lake.
In an email obtained by Post, Kendrick expressed her efforts to increase awareness about Lamb. The polls conducted by her team revealed that people tend to prefer Lamb over Lake and even Arizona Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, if they are made aware of him.
According to Ed Morabito, the senior advisor for Lamb’s campaign, they are encouraging Republicans to vote for Lamb, as Lake has no chance of winning the upcoming general election.
Morabito pointed out that various surveys, including Noble polls, have consistently shown that more than 55% of the general electorate hold a negative view of Kari Lake. In contrast, Lamb’s negative rating of 25% is typical for a candidate. It’s worth noting that among independent voters, a significant 80% have expressed that they will not support Kari Lake, while Lamb enjoys a 20% advantage in this demographic.
According to Morabito, Republicans are rightfully worried about losing the upcoming general election to Ruben Gallego. He stated that various surveys have shown that Mark Lamb is the most suitable candidate to win the general election. Morabito believes that Lamb’s ability to bring together Republican voters and attract independents is the key to success in the election. He emphasized that this is the only way Republicans can secure victory.
At the time of publication, requests for comment from Lake’s office had not been responded to.
The primary election in Arizona is scheduled on Tuesday, and despite the option of mail-in ballots, many voters still prefer to cast their votes in person. To find their designated polling locations, voters can easily visit my.arizona.vote.
To take part in the voting process, individuals are required to possess valid identification that could either be a photo ID or two different forms of identification if the former does not include a photograph.
