In 2015, Iran made a commitment to a deal that demanded the surrender of 97% of its uranium stockpile, which could be used for creating nuclear weapons. During the negotiations, Russia, China, the United States, and Europe collaborated to ensure the successful completion of the agreement.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was even able to cooperate with the West on critical security issues and help constrain a disruptive regime in a volatile region by taking Iran’s nuclear fuel for a substantial fee. This prompted celebratory declarations that highlighted the potential for Russian involvement in important global matters.
In the past nine years, significant shifts have occurred. China and Russia have forged closer ties with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” a group that opposes the U.S.-led order, which also includes North Korea. During a recent video call from the White House, President Joe Biden attempted to gather leaders from six nations to discuss a shared approach for de-escalating the Israel-Iran crisis. However, it was evident that China and Russia were not present during the call.
The loss of that cohesive front is just one of the numerous factors contributing to the current situation, which appears to be “especially perilous,” according to Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. In fact, he believes that this may be the most precarious moment in decades.
However, it is not the only one.
When President Donald Trump made the decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal initiated by the Obama administration, it was not surprising that Iran responded in kind. Following a significant pause, Iran resumed its uranium enrichment activities, even reaching levels that are alarmingly close to the quality required for a nuclear bomb. This means that Iran is now much closer to the production of a nuclear weapon than it was during the time when the agreement was still in effect.
Iran’s ballistic missile program has made significant advancements, and recently, some of these weapons were used against Israel. It is worth noting that all the United Nations prohibitions on Iran’s ballistic missile program have expired, allowing the country to freely pursue its missile capabilities. Furthermore, Iran has strengthened its military drone fleet by collaborating with Russia, which has become its primary foreign supplier. By studying Russia’s use of drones during its assault on Ukraine, Iran has been able to enhance its own drone capabilities.
Many Republicans criticized then-President Barack Obama’s pursuit of the 2015 nuclear deal, arguing that it was dangerously irresponsible. Even some Democrats, while supportive of the deal’s details, expressed concerns about Obama’s naivety in expecting it to lead to significant changes in Iran.
With the recent increase in tensions between Iran and Israel, critics of the Biden administration are now pointing fingers at the lack of a stronger stance taken against Iran in recent years. They argue that this has left Israel in a vulnerable position, especially as it is currently engaged in a conflict with Hamas, an Iranian-backed group, in the Gaza Strip.
“The failure of the White House to acknowledge that the current conflict in the Middle East is not solely about Palestinians or Arabs versus Israel, but rather an Iranian aggression against Israel, reflects a lack of awareness and vulnerability,” expressed John Bolton. Bolton, who previously served as the national security adviser under the Trump administration and strongly opposed the Iran deal, shared this viewpoint on Sunday.
“The unfortunate reality is that both Israeli and U.S. attempts to deter Iran have proven unsuccessful,” he lamented. He continued to advocate, as he and a few other Iran hawks have previously, that Israel should seize this opportunity to “neutralize Iran’s air defenses” and potentially target the Quds Force, Iran’s highly skilled units. In essence, he suggests pursuing a path of escalation that directly contradicts Biden’s advice.”
Even experts who are more supportive of Biden’s diplomacy in the region express concerns about the limited leverage to influence Iran. This is particularly worrisome if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chooses to respond to the attack with a more measured retaliatory strike, as opposed to the one Bolton is advocating for.
Nasr believes that there is an inevitable clash between Israel and Iran on the horizon.
According to an expert, Iran and Israel have emerged as the key players in the Middle East. They perceive each other as significant national security threats, and their rivalry knows no bounds. With the absence of any established boundaries or regulations, their shadow war is gradually spilling into the open. Unless some rules are put in place, both countries are heading towards an escalating conflict.
When Biden crafted his administration’s strategy, he envisioned a world that would effectively address the challenges posed by Russia in Ukraine and other areas, as well as compete with China. However, this vision was shattered when Hamas launched a devastating terror attack on October 7, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis. This unexpected turn of events disrupted Biden’s priorities and thrust the White House back into a familiar state of chaos.
Even though Biden employed intermediaries to prevent Iran’s retaliatory strikes from escalating, direct communication between the U.S. and Iran is currently absent, marking a significant departure from the past decade.
During the negotiations with Iran, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry maintained regular and direct communication with Mohammad Javad Zarif, his Iranian counterpart. It is worth mentioning that Zarif had actually pursued his higher education in the United States prior to the Iranian revolution.
During their negotiations on the number of centrifuges Iran could construct, they also successfully resolved potential crises. For instance, when a small U.S. naval vessel unintentionally entered Iranian waters and its crew was captured, their phone conversations led to their swift release within hours, effectively preventing another hostage situation.
However, that era has come to an end. With the arrival of the Biden administration, their efforts to revive certain aspects of the 2015 deal within the first 18 months were met with resistance from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He made it clear that there would be no direct talks with the administration, and instead, notes and offers were exchanged through European intermediaries. Although it seemed like a deal was within reach in the summer of 2022, the Iranian negotiators brought it back to Tehran, where new demands were introduced, leading to the collapse of the entire process.
Now, there is a new nuclear dimension lurking behind the fear of a general escalation.
The Iranians have not been hastily pursuing a nuclear bomb, as indicated by the available evidence. Instead, their progress in uranium enrichment has been consistent and deliberate. However, as a means to exert pressure on the West, they have effectively hindered the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog, from conducting thorough inspections.
Inspectors have faced restrictions in accessing certain sites, with some inspectors being denied entry due to their country’s perceived unfriendliness by the Iranians. Additionally, surveillance cameras have been removed from critical sites, hindering the monitoring process. Concerns regarding previous activities at specific military locations have remained unanswered.
Rafael Grossi, the Argentine diplomat who serves as the director general of the United Nations agency, expressed concerns about the diversion of nuclear material to other facilities or weapons programs. He stated in an interview that he cannot provide assurances regarding this matter.
According to nuclear experts, a pressing concern today is Iran’s strong motivation to continue advancing its nuclear program. They argue that Iran is driven by a desire to challenge the Western powers and to establish what it refers to as a “deterrent” against Israel, which is widely believed to possess undeclared nuclear weapons in the region.
James Clapper, the former director of national intelligence under the Obama administration, expressed his concern about the potential acceleration of actions by the individuals in question.
Iran’s recognition of the danger, as demonstrated on Saturday by carefully telegraphing its intentions, actually worked in favor of Israel, the U.S., and nearby Arab forces. This proactive approach allowed them to effectively intercept the incoming drones and missiles. It is a clear indication that Iran wanted to convey a message without necessarily escalating the situation to the point of war.
