According to preliminary exit poll results from the Republican primary, around 20 to 30 percent of Republican primary voters in Ohio still oppose Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy. Interestingly, among those who support Nikki Haley, almost half of them would be willing to vote for Joe Biden in the upcoming November election.
According to preliminary exit poll data, a large majority of voters express their loyalty towards Trump. However, the level of intraparty challenges could have an impact on the close contest expected in November. Although Trump has secured the nomination, it is worth noting that 20% of Ohio GOP primary voters would be dissatisfied with him as the nominee. Additionally, 22% believe that he lacks the temperament to effectively serve, and 28% say he would not be fit for office if convicted of a crime.
At the end of the day, 18% of respondents stated that they would not support Trump in the upcoming November election. Out of this group, 10% expressed a preference for Biden, while 8% indicated that they would not vote for either candidate. It is worth noting that, nationally, 6% of Republicans voted for Biden in the 2020 election. The potential nonparticipation of some Republicans poses an additional risk for Trump.
Critics of Trump mainly consist of the voters who supported Haley, despite her withdrawal from the race. These voters began casting their absentee votes in Ohio on February 21, two weeks before Haley suspended her campaign. According to a survey, 88% of Haley supporters would be unsatisfied if Trump became the nominee. Additionally, 91% believe that he lacks the temperament required for the office, and 88% consider him unfit if convicted. Furthermore, 8 out of 10 of these voters have stated that they would not vote for Trump in the general election. Among them, 47% prefer Biden, while 32% would not vote for either candidate. Only 18% of Haley voters claim they would vote for Trump in the upcoming fall election.
According to preliminary exit poll results, a majority of Haley voters, amounting to sixty percent, have expressed that they consider the Republican Party to be “too conservative.” Similarly, in line with previous elections this year, a minority of GOP primary voters, specifically 19%, share the same sentiment. Furthermore, only 42% of Republican voters identify themselves as being a part of the MAGA movement.
In Tuesday’s election, the test for Trump’s influence lies in whether Bernie Moreno, his favored candidate for the party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate, can come out on top.
In a showdown against the state’s GOP establishment, Moreno, a car dealership and blockchain business owner, is supported by Trump. He is up against state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose father is the owner of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The victorious candidate will go head-to-head with incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown in the upcoming fall election. Trump made an appearance at a rally for Moreno in Dayton on Saturday, where he criticized Dolan for not being conservative enough.
According to preliminary exit poll results, Moreno may have an advantage as 79% of Senate primary voters approve of how Trump handled his job as president, with 59% strongly approving. Additionally, 71% of voters consider it important that the state’s next U.S. senator supports Trump, with 55% of them considering it very important. In this particular group, Moreno holds a significant lead over Dolan by 45 percentage points.
The composition of the state’s GOP electorate and the percentage of white evangelical Christians played a significant role in the Senate race. These factors have been pivotal in previous primaries this year, particularly among strong conservatives and the core Trump supporters. Moreno outperformed Dolan by 30 points among white evangelicals, 39 points among individuals who are dissatisfied with the country’s current direction (another key Trump demographic), 44 points among very conservative voters, and 45 points among those who strongly approve of Trump’s performance as president.
Moreno, similar to Trump, garnered significant support from voters without a four-year college degree, constituting 55% of the voter turnout. Meanwhile, Dolan emerged as the preferred choice among moderate voters, particularly those seeking a senator who is not closely associated with Trump.
According to the initial findings, a significant majority of GOP voters lean towards conservative viewpoints when it comes to various issues. For instance, 72% of them express support for deporting the majority of unauthorized immigrants. Additionally, 61% of these voters exhibit enthusiasm or satisfaction with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to remove the constitutional right to abortion. Furthermore, half of them indicate their willingness to back a federal law that prohibits all or most abortions across the country. It is interesting to note that in a statewide ballot initiative conducted last year, Ohioans voted 57-43% in favor of including abortion rights in the state constitution.
In the preliminary exit poll results, Moreno emerged as a strong candidate among those who support deportation and oppose abortion. On the other hand, Dolan garnered support from those who hold opposing views on these issues.
In the presidential race, the voters supporting Haley have distinct views compared to Trump’s supporters on certain important issues. Only 40% of Haley’s voters are in favor of deporting most unauthorized immigrants, while 37% express enthusiasm or satisfaction with the abortion ruling. Additionally, 19% of Haley’s supporters are in favor of a federal abortion ban. These statistics emphasize the significant differences between the Trump and Haley camps.
