California voters in the upcoming elections have the power to shape the outcomes of some of the most fiercely contested U.S. House races in the country. These races hold significant weight as they could potentially influence which political party gains control of the chamber in the coming year.
All 52 congressional seats in California will hold primary elections on Tuesday, where the top two candidates from each race will advance to the general election, regardless of their political party. Out of these seats, approximately 10 are expected to be highly competitive, and a few are considered to be toss-ups.
Conservatives continue to hold significant influence in the Southern California suburbs and the Central Valley farm belt, despite California’s liberal reputation.
Several Democratic primaries have become increasingly contentious as multiple candidates compete for a place on the November ballot.
In the House of Representatives, there are currently 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacancies.
Let’s dive into the most fiercely contested races in California:
22ND DISTRICT: POLITICAL INFIGHTING LEADS TO LOCKOUT FEARS
Despite having a 16-point advantage over Republicans among registered voters, the Central Valley farm district, on paper, should have a Democrat representing it. However, Republican David Valadao defied expectations by holding the seat from 2013 until 2019, losing it for one term, and ultimately reclaiming it in 2020.
Valadao emerged victorious in the 2022 election, defeating former state Assembly member Rudy Salas. However, Salas is making another attempt this year with the support of the Democratic Party and influential figures like Governor Gavin Newsom. In addition to Salas, Democratic state Senator Melissa Hurtado is also contending for the seat. On the Republican side, rancher Chris Mathys is vying for GOP votes, posing a challenge to Valadao.
Salas and Hurtado, who are both well-known state lawmakers in the district, have the potential to divide the Democratic vote, which could result in both Republicans advancing to the general election. This outcome would be detrimental to the Democrats’ prospects of regaining control of the House.
In a recent fundraising pitch, Newsom raised concerns about the potential risk of having two Republicans in the general election.
47TH DISTRICT: REPLACING KATIE PORTER
Republicans are hopeful of reclaiming a once-conservative seat as Democratic Rep. Katie Porter sets her sights on a U.S. Senate seat.
Leading the pack in the GOP race is Scott Baugh, a former state Assembly member who came close to defeating Porter in 2022. On the Democratic side, we have two contenders: state Senator Dave Min and Joanna Weiss, the founder of an organization dedicated to advancing progressive candidates.
The contest between Min and Weiss in this election cycle has been characterized by intense hostility, as both campaigns have launched relentless attacks against each other. Unfortunately, this strategy plays directly into the hands of Republicans, providing them with ample material to exploit during the general election.
Weiss’ campaign is targeting Min for a DUI arrest that occurred last year. In response, Min has accused Weiss of financing her campaign using funds earned by her husband, who allegedly defended Catholic priests convicted of child molestation. However, Weiss’ campaign has denied these allegations, stating that her husband never represented a Catholic priest. They claim that she loaned money to her campaign from a home equity line of credit.
Porter supports Min, who has the endorsement of the state party. Weiss, on the other hand, is supported by Emily’s List, a group that champions Democratic women who advocate for abortion rights, and by Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis.
45TH DISTRICT: A REPUBLICAN SEEKS TO HOLD ON TO A SEAT IN ASIAN COMMUNITY
Since 2020, Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant and member of the Republican party, has been the representative for this district located in Orange County.
The district was specifically designed to empower Asian Americans and give them a more influential presence in Washington. It is also worth noting that this district is home to the largest Vietnamese community in the entire country.
Four Democrats are currently in the running for the position. Among them is Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, who has been endorsed by the state party. Kim’s background is particularly noteworthy, as she is the daughter of a Vietnamese refugee father and a Mexican immigrant mother.
49TH DISTRICT: DEMOCRATS SEEK TO DEFEND A COASTAL SEAT
In 2018, voters in this district, which encompasses parts of Orange and San Diego counties, elected Democrat Mike Levin to succeed the long-serving Republican Darrell Issa. Issa has since made a comeback and is now representing a neighboring district in Congress.
Levin has been reelected twice, winning by a margin of six points in 2020 and five points in 2022.
California’s coastal districts are known to have a Democratic leaning, but Republicans are optimistic about their chances of ousting Levin. There are currently four Republicans vying for the position: Sheryl Adams, a former auto executive; Matt Gunderson, an auto dealer; Kate Monroe, a Marine Corps veteran; and Margarita Wilkinson, a communications executive.
27TH DISTRICT: A REPUBLICAN TRIES TO HANG ON IN LIBERAL LOS ANGELES
Despite facing the odds in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 12 points, Mike Garcia, the last Republican House member anchored in Los Angeles County, has managed to secure not just one, but three victories.
Garcia benefits from his experience as a former Navy fighter pilot and his surname, which originates from his Mexican immigrant father and resonates with the district’s substantial Latino population.
Garcia faces tough competition from Democrat George Whitesides, who has been emphasizing the importance of abortion rights and environmental protection. Whitesides has also been attempting to portray Garcia as someone who does not align with the values of the district.
41ST DISTRICT: A VETERAN REPUBLICAN DEFENDS HIS SEAT
Ken Calvert, a Republican, has represented the district east of Los Angeles since 1993, making him the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation. In the 2022 elections, he secured a victory with a margin of approximately 5 points. This district is characterized by an almost equal distribution of Republican and Democratic voters.
Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor who previously ran against Calvert in 2022, is making another bid for office this year. The campaign arm of House Democrats is supporting his candidacy. Rollins, who is a member of the LGBTQ+ community, has the potential to gain substantial support in Palm Springs, a city with a significant LGBTQ+ population.
