Former President Donald Trump had a resounding triumph on Super Tuesday, emerging victorious in 14 out of the 15 states that conducted a Republican primary or caucus.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who exited the race on Wednesday, faced a significant display of opposition. She aimed to convey the message that the GOP should move away from the Trump era and embrace a fresh era of politics.
While Haley’s argument did not convince most Republican voters, it is important to note that she only managed to win Vermont on Tuesday. However, Trump faced a significant challenge in both his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, which was evident in key states. One of these challenges was his lack of support in suburban communities.
Trump had a decisive victory in the North Carolina primary, securing almost 74% of the vote compared to Haley’s 23%. However, his support in crucial counties, which consist of suburban voters that the party lost in 2016, was not as strong.
In Mecklenburg County, Trump’s victory margin was only 7 points, with him securing 52% of the votes compared to his opponent’s 45%.
In Wake County, located in the vicinity of the state capital Raleigh and its surrounding suburbs, a similar trend emerged. Despite winning the county by a significant margin of 20 points (58%-38%), Trump’s lead was considerably less compared to his statewide advantage of approximately 51 points over Haley.
In recent years, Mecklenburg and Wake counties have shown a leaning towards the Democratic party in presidential elections. In both 2016 and 2020, President Trump failed to secure more than 40% of the votes in Mecklenburg and Wake counties.
Trump managed to secure the state of North Carolina in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, defeating both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, who served as Secretary of State at the time and is now the current President, respectively. However, his victories were quite close, with a margin of less than 4 percentage points in 2016 and only 1.34 percentage points in 2020.
In North Carolina, the counties of Wake and Mecklenburg hold the highest population numbers. Consequently, when Trump failed to secure a substantial portion of suburban voters, it had a significant effect on the overall vote, despite his stronghold in rural areas. This outcome revealed that many voters remained cautious about supporting the former president.
In the state of Virginia, which has shown a Democratic leaning in presidential elections since 2008 but recently elected Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin in 2021, former President Trump did not fare well in suburban areas like Loudoun County and Henrico County.
In the primary, Trump emerged victorious in Virginia with a commanding lead of 28 points (63%-35%). However, his performance in the affluent Loudoun County, a suburb in Northern Virginia, was less impressive, where he narrowly edged out Haley with a margin of only 52%-46%. Similarly, in Henrico County, a former stronghold for the GOP, Trump’s victory margin was only 11 points (55%-44%), despite the presence of many suburban voters who were once staunch supporters of the party’s candidates.
Despite emerging as the victor, Trump experienced a notable decline in his support among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents.
In the autumn, a significant number of these voters, who have concerns about abortion rights and are wary of the criminal charges against Trump, might choose to cast their vote in favor of Biden or even consider supporting a third-party candidate.
The lackluster backing from suburban voters proved detrimental to Trump and the Republican Party in the past. It played a significant role in the GOP losing their majority in the House during the 2018 midterms and ultimately contributed to Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election. This pattern of tepid suburban support might have lasting consequences for Trump, potentially closing the door to the Oval Office for him in the upcoming fall.
